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  ["project_title"]=>
  string(121) "Negative Effect and Clinical Trajectories of Esketamine in Major Depression: an Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis"
  ["project_narrative_summary"]=>
  string(830) "Major depression is a leading cause of disability worldwide. Many people do not respond to standard antidepressants, a condition known as treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Esketamine, a nasal spray recently approved for TRD, is still not fully understood in terms of patients’ day-to-day response over time. In particular, studies rarely examine possible short-term worsening or other negative effects alongside benefits.

This study will combine raw data from multiple clinical trials to explore how response to esketamine evolves over time and to assess potential negative effects. By clarifying when the drug begins to work, how long effects last, and whether transient worsening occurs, clinicians may better tailor treatment, set realistic expectations, and improve care for people with severe depression." ["project_learn_source"]=> string(12) "scien_public" ["principal_investigator"]=> array(7) { ["first_name"]=> string(7) "Florian" ["last_name"]=> string(6) "Naudet" ["degree"]=> string(7) "MD, PhD" ["primary_affiliation"]=> string(17) "Rennes University" ["email"]=> string(23) "floriannaudet@gmail.com" ["state_or_province"]=> string(8) "Bretagne" ["country"]=> string(6) "France" } ["project_key_personnel"]=> array(5) { [0]=> array(6) { ["p_pers_f_name"]=> string(9) "Valentijn" ["p_pers_l_name"]=> string(7) "de Jong" ["p_pers_degree"]=> string(3) "PhD" ["p_pers_pr_affil"]=> string(11) "UMC Utrecht" ["p_pers_scop_id"]=> string(0) "" ["requires_data_access"]=> string(3) "yes" } [1]=> array(6) { ["p_pers_f_name"]=> string(8) "Muhammad" ["p_pers_l_name"]=> string(6) "Riedha" ["p_pers_degree"]=> string(17) "MA / MS / MSc, MD" ["p_pers_pr_affil"]=> string(23) "Hospices Civils de Lyon" ["p_pers_scop_id"]=> string(0) "" ["requires_data_access"]=> string(3) "yes" } [2]=> array(6) { ["p_pers_f_name"]=> string(9) "Grigorios" ["p_pers_l_name"]=> string(12) "Papapostolou" ["p_pers_degree"]=> string(13) "MA / MS / MSc" ["p_pers_pr_affil"]=> string(37) "Berlin Institute of Health - Charité" ["p_pers_scop_id"]=> string(0) "" ["requires_data_access"]=> string(3) "yes" } [3]=> array(6) { ["p_pers_f_name"]=> string(5) "Jifan" ["p_pers_l_name"]=> string(4) "Wang" ["p_pers_degree"]=> string(15) "MPH / MHS / MBA" ["p_pers_pr_affil"]=> string(11) "UMC Utrecht" ["p_pers_scop_id"]=> string(0) "" ["requires_data_access"]=> string(3) "yes" } [4]=> array(6) { ["p_pers_f_name"]=> string(11) "Ioana Alina" ["p_pers_l_name"]=> string(7) "Cristea" ["p_pers_degree"]=> string(3) "PhD" ["p_pers_pr_affil"]=> string(20) "University of Padova" ["p_pers_scop_id"]=> string(0) "" ["requires_data_access"]=> string(3) "yes" } } ["project_ext_grants"]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> string(3) "yes" ["label"]=> string(65) "External grants or funds are being used to support this research." } ["project_funding_source"]=> string(71) "Doctoral network MSCA-DN SHARE-CTD (HORIZON-MSCA-2022-DN-01 101120360)." ["project_date_type"]=> string(18) "full_crs_supp_docs" ["property_scientific_abstract"]=> string(1640) "Background: Evidence for esketamine in TRD mostly relies on single time points and does not capture treatment trajectories.
Objective: To explore the negative effect and clinical trajectories responded to esketamine in adults with TRD.
Study Design: An individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) of randomized controlled trials (RCT).
Participants: Adults (≥18 years) with a confirmed diagnosis of TRD, randomized to receive intranasal esketamine or placebo, both combined with a newly initiated oral antidepressant. Trials targeting imminent suicidal ideation or utilizing intravenous administration are excluded.
Primary and Secondary Outcome Measure(s): The primary outcome is time-varying clinical response based on the percentage change in Montgomery–Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) score from baseline, categorized ordinally into response (≥50% decrease), partial response (25% to 50% decrease), non-response (0% to <25% decrease), and deterioration (≥0% increase). There is no secondary outcome.
Statistical Analysis: A one-stage IPD-MA will be conducted using a mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression with random intercepts for participants nested in studies. A treatment-time spline interaction will be modeled. The model will be adjusted for baseline MADRS, geographic region, and concurrent oral antidepressant class/oral antidepressant monotherapy. Proportional odds assumption will be assessed graphically. A sensitivity analysis will be performed using a continuous-time semi-Markov multistate model if the data is sufficient. Analyses will be conducted in R." ["project_brief_bg"]=> string(2100) "Major depressive disorder (MDD) affects over 332 million individuals globally (World Health Organization, 2025) and is a leading cause of disability worldwide. (GBD 2019) A substantial subgroup of patients, approximately 30-40%, failed to respond adequately to at least two antidepressants, develop the treatment-resistant depression (TRD). (McIntyre et al., 2023) TRD is associated with prolonged suffering, elevated suicide risk, and disproportionate healthcare costs, representing one of the most pressing unmet needs in psychiatry.
Esketamine nasal spray (Spravato®), received regulatory approval from the FDA and EMA to treat adults with TRD. It works through N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonism, that demonstrating fast-acting efficacy in reducing depressive symptoms, which is a temporally distinct mechanism from conventional monoaminergic therapies. ASPIRE I and II showed significant MADRS reductions at 24 hours post-dose, and SUSTAIN-1 showed esketamine delayed relapse versus placebo in treatment responders. This adjunctive therapy represents paradigm shift and has recently gained traction for its benefits.
However, existing evidence has limitations. Current clinical evidence heavily relies on static efficacy measurements evaluated at single, isolated time points. This approach masks the highly dynamic, non-linear trajectories that patients undergo during the acute treatment course. It failed to capture patients who experience divergent or negative outcomes, such as symptomatic stagnation or acute deterioration. Furthermore, the durability of esketamine’s effect post-induction and how the transient adverse events (AEs) including disassociation, dizziness, nausea modulate these trajectories remains poorly characterized at the individual participant level.
This study addresses this gap through a one-stage Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis (IPD-MA). This study will generate scientific and medical knowledge by providing the comprehensive map of time-varying clinical trajectories in TRD patients treated with esketamine.
" ["project_specific_aims"]=> string(856) "The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the time-varying clinical trajectories and investigate potential negative effects in adults with TRD receiving intranasal esketamine compared to placebo. We aim to model the longitudinal probabilities of patients in ordinal categories based on their percentage change in MADRS scores from baseline.
The therapeutic effect of intranasal esketamine on the clinical trajectory of TRD varies significantly over time and is non-linear. Esketamine significantly accelerates the initial transition to partial and full response compared to placebo. However, there is a distinct and identifiable subgroup of patients who experience divergent, unfavorable outcomes characterized by symptom stagnation or acute worsening (an increase in MADRS score of ≥0%) despite the overall beneficial therapeutic effect." ["project_study_design"]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> string(7) "meta_an" ["label"]=> string(52) "Meta-analysis (analysis of multiple trials together)" } ["project_purposes"]=> array(3) { [0]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> string(56) "new_research_question_to_examine_treatment_effectiveness" ["label"]=> string(114) "New research question to examine treatment effectiveness on secondary endpoints and/or within subgroup populations" } [1]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> string(22) "participant_level_data" ["label"]=> string(36) "Participant-level data meta-analysis" } [2]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> string(37) "participant_level_data_only_from_yoda" ["label"]=> string(51) "Meta-analysis using only data from the YODA Project" } } ["project_research_methods"]=> string(1418) "Data Source
The study will utilize participant-level data exclusively from the Yale University Open Data Access (YODA) Project to conduct a one-stage IPD meta-analysis. We will not pool data from any studies outside the YODA Project. All data harmonization and modeling will be conducted within the given computing environment with R.
Inclusion Criteria
The following criteria will define the study sample:
· Study design: Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)
· Demographics: Adults (≥18 years of age).
· Clinical Characteristics: A confirmed diagnosis of Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD) which is defined as non-response to the full treatment regimen of two anti-depressants
· Intervention/Comparator: Participants randomized to receive intranasal esketamine combined with a newly initiated/optimized oral antidepressant, or intranasal placebo combined with a newly initiated/optimized oral antidepressant.
Exclusion Criteria
To ensure clinical and methodological homogeneity, the following trial types will be excluded:
· Non-TRD Populations: Trials targeting MDD patients primarily for imminent/active suicidal ideation where TRD is not a required inclusion criterion (e.g. ASPIRE I and II).
· Different administration route: Trials evaluating intravenous ketamine or intravenous esketamine rather than intranasal esketamine." ["project_main_outcome_measure"]=> string(984) "Primary Outcome Measure
The primary outcome is the time-varying clinical response of participants assessed longitudinally throughout the trial. This framework captures dynamic clinical trajectories over time.
Outcome Categorization and Definitions
At each post-baseline assessment, a participant's clinical status will be classified into four ordinal categories based on the percentage change in the total depression severity score (e.g., MADRS) from baseline:
· Response: ≥50% decrease from baseline in the total severity score. (Samalin et al., 2026)
· Partial response: 25% to 0% to <25% decrease from baseline in the total severity score.
· Deterioration: ≥0% increase from baseline in the total severity score (representing no clinical improvement or a worsening of symptoms).
Secondary Outcome Measure(s)
None. The analysis is strictly focused on time-varying transitions between the primary clinical states." ["project_main_predictor_indep"]=> string(1248) "Main Predictor/Independent Variable
The primary independent variable is the randomized treatment group assignment, operationalized as a binary categorical variable:
· Intervention: Esketamine nasal spray combined with a newly initiated or optimized oral antidepressant.
· Comparator: Placebo nasal spray combined with a newly initiated or optimized oral antidepressant.
Within our primary mixed-effects ordinal logistic model, we will evaluate the independent effect of this treatment variable on the odds of participants transitioning between the distinct clinical response states over time.
Covariates and Model Adjustments
To appropriately isolate the independent treatment effect within the IPD meta-analysis, the models will systematically adjust for the following prespecified covariates:
· Baseline Disease Severity: Modeled as a continuous variable utilizing the baseline MADRS total score.
· Geographic Region: Categorized by country or continent to account for regional clinical variations.
· Concurrent Antidepressant Medication: The class of oral antidepressant or antidepressant monotherapy status.
All statistical analyses will be performed using R.
" ["project_other_variables_interest"]=> string(47) "No other variable will be used in the analysis." ["project_stat_analysis_plan"]=> string(3906) "The primary outcome is the longitudinal response in MADRS from baseline to week 4. The primary estimand will be the response trajectory of the use of esketamine in conjunction with an anti-depressant on depression from baseline to week 4 post randomization, compared with placebo, among adults with TRD. Negative change in depression is measured by the change in MADRS score, classified into one of the four ordinal categories: deterioration, non-response, partial response, or response. Participants with observed outcome data will be included according to their assigned treatment, irrespective of treatment discontinuation, rescue medication use, or other post-randomization events. Esketamine was considered as a class effect across all doses, frequencies, and treatment durations used in the included trials. The individual MADRS scores will be visualized using spaghetti plots for each trial. The proportion of participant responses at each time point will be summarized by treatment groups.
We will use the 1-stage IPDMA approach with the mixed-effects ordinal logistic model with random intercepts on participants nested within studies. (Christensen 2018) To better model the time-varying treatment effect, we will add an interaction between treatment and time spline function in the model. Time will be modelled in natural cubic spline with 3 or 4 knots depending on the model fit and convergence. (Harrell 2001) Analyses will be adjusted for baseline MADRS scores and country/continent. Additionally, depending on data availability in each study, adjustments will be made for either the class of oral antidepressant or antidepressant monotherapy. For studies conducted in one country, the country will be entered based on trial protocol. The proportional odds assumption will be assessed graphically. When the proportional odds assumption is not met, we will use the mixed-effects multinomial logistic model. Prediction intervals will be calculated when more than 10 trials are included in the analysis. We will use the complete case analysis and report the percentage of missing data. The small study effect will be assessed using funnel plots when more than 10 trials are included.
When there are more than 5 trials eligible for inclusion, we would consider a sensitivity analysis using multistate model to compare the transition rates between each outcome categories during the intervention period between esketamine and placebo groups. In order to check whether enough transitions are observed in the data for a reliable model estimation, we will summarize the number of transitions between each outcome categories for the whole data. When the transitions between states are larger than 40 each, we will fit a continuous-time semi-Markov multistate model to investigate the transition rates between each outcome categories. (Meira-Machado et al., 2009) All possible transitions are allowed except for the direct transitions between response and deterioration. Since MADRS were measured only at scheduled visits, the exact transition times are unknown and will be assumed to occur between observation times. (Jackson 2011) Similar to the primary analysis, baseline MADRS scores, country/continent, the class of oral antidepressant/antidepressant monotherapy will be adjusted for in the model. Given the rapid reaction of esketamine, we expect a lower transition rate when participants stay in one category for a long time. Thus, duration in the state will be modelled as a fixed effect. Since the current package for interval-censored data doesn’t not account for clustering within studies, study will be included as a fixed effect in the model. Treatment effects will be estimated separately for each transition and reported as transition-specific hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. All the available data will be used, and no imputation will be performed.
" ["project_software_used"]=> array(1) { [0]=> array(2) { ["value"]=> string(1) "r" ["label"]=> string(1) "R" } } ["project_timeline"]=> string(835) "This project is part of SHARE-CTD Datathon 3, in which three independent teams have developed three distinct research questions. The present submission is made by the Principal Investigator on behalf of the datathon. Each team will conduct its analyses separately and in isolation, ensuring independence of research questions, analytical approaches, and interpretation of results across teams.

This project will be conducted during September 2026 as part of the SHARE-CTD Datathon 3. The main analyses will be carried out between Monday, 7 September 2026, and Friday, 11 September 2026, during the datathon. Additional analyses, quality checks, and finalisation of the statistical analyses may continue later in September, if required. Manuscript preparation is expected to take place between September and October 2026." ["project_dissemination_plan"]=> string(205) "Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed scientific publications, presentations at national and international conferences, and communication activities conducted as part of the SHARE-CTD project." ["project_bibliography"]=> string(3351) "

Christensen RH. Cumulative link models for ordinal regression with the R package ordinal. Submitted in J. Stat. Software. 2018;35:1-46. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:59572956

Daly, E. J., Trivedi, M. H., Janik, A., Li, H., Zhang, Y., Li, X., Lane, R., Lim, P., Duca, A. R., Hough, D., Thase, M. E., Zajecka, J., Winokur, A., Divacka, I., Fagiolini, A., Cubała, W. J., Bitter, I., Blier, P., Shelton, R. C., … Singh, J. B. (2019). Efficacy of Esketamine Nasal Spray Plus Oral Antidepressant Treatment for Relapse Prevention in Patients With Treatment-Resistant Depression: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA Psychiatry, 76(9), 893–903. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2019.1189

Fu, D.-J., Ionescu, D. F., Li, X., Lane, R., Lim, P., Sanacora, G., Hough, D., Manji, H., Drevets, W. C., & Canuso, C. M. (2020). Esketamine Nasal Spray for Rapid Reduction of Major Depressive Disorder Symptoms in Patients Who Have Active Suicidal Ideation With Intent: Double-Blind, Randomized Study (ASPIRE I). The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, 81(3), 19m13191. https://doi.org/10.4088/JCP.19m13191.

Global, regional, and national burden of 12 mental disorders in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. (2022). The Lancet Psychiatry, 9(2), 137–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215-0366(21)00395-3

Harrell FE. Regression modeling strategies: with applications to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. New York: springer; 2001 Jan 10. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3462-1

Jackson C. Multi-state models for panel data: the msm package for R. Journal of statistical software. 2011 Jan 4;38:1-28. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v038.i08

McIntyre, R. S., Alsuwaidan, M., Baune, B. T., Berk, M., Demyttenaere, K., Goldberg, J. F., Gorwood, P., Ho, R., Kasper, S., Kennedy, S. H., Ly-Uson, J., Mansur, R. B., McAllister-Williams, R. H., Murrough, J. W., Nemeroff, C. B., Nierenberg, A. A., Rosenblat, J. D., Sanacora, G., Schatzberg, A. F., … Maj, M. (2023). Treatment-resistant depression: Definition, prevalence, detection, management, and investigational interventions. World Psychiatry, 22(3), 394–412. https://doi.org/10.1002/wps.21120

Meira-Machado L, de Uña-Álvarez J, Cadarso-Suárez C, Andersen PK. Multi-state models for the analysis of time-to-event data. Statistical methods in medical research. 2009 Apr;18(2):195-222. https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280208092301

Samalin, L., Rothärmel, M., Mekaoui, L., Sauvaget, A., Wicart, C., Gaudre-Wattine, E., Cohignac, V., Malatesta, A., & Dupin, J. (2026). Effectiveness and factors associated with esketamine response during the 4-week induction period for treatment-resistant depression: Post-hoc analysis of the real-world ESKALE study. Journal of Psychiatric Research, 197, 298–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2026.03.011

World Health Organization. (2025, August 29). Depressive disorder (depression). https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/depression

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2026-0596

General Information

How did you learn about the YODA Project?: Scientific Publication

Conflict of Interest

Request Clinical Trials

Associated Trial(s):
  1. NCT04599855 - A Randomized, Double-blind, Multicenter, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Esketamine Nasal Spray, Administered as Monotherapy, in Adult Participants With Treatment-resistant Depression
  2. NCT04338321 - A Long-term Comparison of Esketamine Nasal Spray Versus Quetiapine Extended Release, Both in Combination With a Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor/​Serotonin-Norepinephrine Reuptake Inhibitor, in Participants With Treatment Resistant Major Depressive Disorder (ESCAPE-TRD)
  3. NCT03434041 - A Randomized, Double-blind, Multicenter Active-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of Flexible Doses of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant in Adult Subjects With Treatment-resistant Depression
  4. NCT02497287 - An Open-label, Long-term, Safety and Efficacy Study of Intranasal Esketamine in Treatment-resistant Depression
  5. NCT02493868 - A Randomized, Double-blind, Multicenter, Active-Controlled Study of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant for Relapse Prevention in Treatment-resistant Depression
  6. NCT01998958 - A Double-Blind, Doubly-Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study of Intranasal Esketamine in an Adaptive Treatment Protocol to Assess Safety and Efficacy in Treatment-Resistant Depression (SYNAPSE)
  7. NCT02918318 - A Randomized, Double-blind, Multicenter, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Fixed Doses of Intranasal Esketamine in Japanese Subjects With Treatment Resistant Depression
  8. NCT01627782 - A Double-blind, Randomized, Placebo-controlled, Parallel Group, Dose Frequency Study of Ketamine in Subjects With Treatment-resistant Depression
  9. NCT01640080 - A Double-Blind, Double-Randomization, Placebo-Controlled Study of the Efficacy of Intravenous Esketamine in Adult Subjects With Treatment-Resistant Depression
  10. NCT03097133 - A Double-blind, Randomized, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intranasal Esketamine in Addition to Comprehensive Standard of Care for the Rapid Reduction of the Symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder, Including Suicidal Ideation, in Adult Subjects Assessed to be at Imminent Risk for Suicide
  11. NCT02133001 - A Double-blind, Randomized, Placebo Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intranasal Esketamine for the Rapid Reduction of the Symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder, Including Suicidal Ideation, in Subjects Who Are Assessed to be at Imminent Risk for Suicide
  12. NCT03039192 - A Double-blind, Randomized, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intranasal Esketamine in Addition to Comprehensive Standard of Care for the Rapid Reduction of the Symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder, Including Suicidal Ideation, in Adult Subjects Assessed to be at Imminent Risk for Suicide
  13. NCT02422186 - A Randomized, Double-blind, Multicenter, Active-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant in Elderly Subjects With Treatment-resistant Depression
  14. NCT02418585 - A Randomized, Double-blind, Multicenter, Active-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Flexible Doses of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant in Adult Subjects With Treatment-resistant Depression
  15. NCT02417064 - A Randomized, Double-blind, Multicenter, Active-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Fixed Doses of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant in Adult Subjects With Treatment-resistant Depression
What type of data are you looking for?: Individual Participant-Level Data, which includes Full CSR and all supporting documentation

Request Clinical Trials

Data Request Status

Status: Ongoing

Research Proposal

Project Title: Negative Effect and Clinical Trajectories of Esketamine in Major Depression: an Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Scientific Abstract: Background: Evidence for esketamine in TRD mostly relies on single time points and does not capture treatment trajectories.
Objective: To explore the negative effect and clinical trajectories responded to esketamine in adults with TRD.
Study Design: An individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) of randomized controlled trials (RCT).
Participants: Adults (>=18 years) with a confirmed diagnosis of TRD, randomized to receive intranasal esketamine or placebo, both combined with a newly initiated oral antidepressant. Trials targeting imminent suicidal ideation or utilizing intravenous administration are excluded.
Primary and Secondary Outcome Measure(s): The primary outcome is time-varying clinical response based on the percentage change in Montgomery--Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) score from baseline, categorized ordinally into response (>=50% decrease), partial response (25% to 50% decrease), non-response (0% to <25% decrease), and deterioration (>=0% increase). There is no secondary outcome.
Statistical Analysis: A one-stage IPD-MA will be conducted using a mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression with random intercepts for participants nested in studies. A treatment-time spline interaction will be modeled. The model will be adjusted for baseline MADRS, geographic region, and concurrent oral antidepressant class/oral antidepressant monotherapy. Proportional odds assumption will be assessed graphically. A sensitivity analysis will be performed using a continuous-time semi-Markov multistate model if the data is sufficient. Analyses will be conducted in R.

Brief Project Background and Statement of Project Significance: Major depressive disorder (MDD) affects over 332 million individuals globally (World Health Organization, 2025) and is a leading cause of disability worldwide. (GBD 2019) A substantial subgroup of patients, approximately 30-40%, failed to respond adequately to at least two antidepressants, develop the treatment-resistant depression (TRD). (McIntyre et al., 2023) TRD is associated with prolonged suffering, elevated suicide risk, and disproportionate healthcare costs, representing one of the most pressing unmet needs in psychiatry.
Esketamine nasal spray (Spravato(R)), received regulatory approval from the FDA and EMA to treat adults with TRD. It works through N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonism, that demonstrating fast-acting efficacy in reducing depressive symptoms, which is a temporally distinct mechanism from conventional monoaminergic therapies. ASPIRE I and II showed significant MADRS reductions at 24 hours post-dose, and SUSTAIN-1 showed esketamine delayed relapse versus placebo in treatment responders. This adjunctive therapy represents paradigm shift and has recently gained traction for its benefits.
However, existing evidence has limitations. Current clinical evidence heavily relies on static efficacy measurements evaluated at single, isolated time points. This approach masks the highly dynamic, non-linear trajectories that patients undergo during the acute treatment course. It failed to capture patients who experience divergent or negative outcomes, such as symptomatic stagnation or acute deterioration. Furthermore, the durability of esketamine's effect post-induction and how the transient adverse events (AEs) including disassociation, dizziness, nausea modulate these trajectories remains poorly characterized at the individual participant level.
This study addresses this gap through a one-stage Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis (IPD-MA). This study will generate scientific and medical knowledge by providing the comprehensive map of time-varying clinical trajectories in TRD patients treated with esketamine.

Specific Aims of the Project: The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the time-varying clinical trajectories and investigate potential negative effects in adults with TRD receiving intranasal esketamine compared to placebo. We aim to model the longitudinal probabilities of patients in ordinal categories based on their percentage change in MADRS scores from baseline.
The therapeutic effect of intranasal esketamine on the clinical trajectory of TRD varies significantly over time and is non-linear. Esketamine significantly accelerates the initial transition to partial and full response compared to placebo. However, there is a distinct and identifiable subgroup of patients who experience divergent, unfavorable outcomes characterized by symptom stagnation or acute worsening (an increase in MADRS score of >=0%) despite the overall beneficial therapeutic effect.

Study Design: Meta-analysis (analysis of multiple trials together)

What is the purpose of the analysis being proposed? Please select all that apply.: New research question to examine treatment effectiveness on secondary endpoints and/or within subgroup populations Participant-level data meta-analysis Meta-analysis using only data from the YODA Project

Software Used: R

Data Source and Inclusion/Exclusion Criteria to be used to define the patient sample for your study: Data Source
The study will utilize participant-level data exclusively from the Yale University Open Data Access (YODA) Project to conduct a one-stage IPD meta-analysis. We will not pool data from any studies outside the YODA Project. All data harmonization and modeling will be conducted within the given computing environment with R.
Inclusion Criteria
The following criteria will define the study sample:
. Study design: Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)
. Demographics: Adults (>=18 years of age).
. Clinical Characteristics: A confirmed diagnosis of Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD) which is defined as non-response to the full treatment regimen of two anti-depressants
. Intervention/Comparator: Participants randomized to receive intranasal esketamine combined with a newly initiated/optimized oral antidepressant, or intranasal placebo combined with a newly initiated/optimized oral antidepressant.
Exclusion Criteria
To ensure clinical and methodological homogeneity, the following trial types will be excluded:
. Non-TRD Populations: Trials targeting MDD patients primarily for imminent/active suicidal ideation where TRD is not a required inclusion criterion (e.g. ASPIRE I and II).
. Different administration route: Trials evaluating intravenous ketamine or intravenous esketamine rather than intranasal esketamine.

Primary and Secondary Outcome Measure(s) and how they will be categorized/defined for your study: Primary Outcome Measure
The primary outcome is the time-varying clinical response of participants assessed longitudinally throughout the trial. This framework captures dynamic clinical trajectories over time.
Outcome Categorization and Definitions
At each post-baseline assessment, a participant's clinical status will be classified into four ordinal categories based on the percentage change in the total depression severity score (e.g., MADRS) from baseline:
. Response: >=50% decrease from baseline in the total severity score. (Samalin et al., 2026)
. Partial response: 25% to 0% to <25% decrease from baseline in the total severity score.
. Deterioration: >=0% increase from baseline in the total severity score (representing no clinical improvement or a worsening of symptoms).
Secondary Outcome Measure(s)
None. The analysis is strictly focused on time-varying transitions between the primary clinical states.

Main Predictor/Independent Variable and how it will be categorized/defined for your study: Main Predictor/Independent Variable
The primary independent variable is the randomized treatment group assignment, operationalized as a binary categorical variable:
. Intervention: Esketamine nasal spray combined with a newly initiated or optimized oral antidepressant.
. Comparator: Placebo nasal spray combined with a newly initiated or optimized oral antidepressant.
Within our primary mixed-effects ordinal logistic model, we will evaluate the independent effect of this treatment variable on the odds of participants transitioning between the distinct clinical response states over time.
Covariates and Model Adjustments
To appropriately isolate the independent treatment effect within the IPD meta-analysis, the models will systematically adjust for the following prespecified covariates:
. Baseline Disease Severity: Modeled as a continuous variable utilizing the baseline MADRS total score.
. Geographic Region: Categorized by country or continent to account for regional clinical variations.
. Concurrent Antidepressant Medication: The class of oral antidepressant or antidepressant monotherapy status.
All statistical analyses will be performed using R.

Other Variables of Interest that will be used in your analysis and how they will be categorized/defined for your study: No other variable will be used in the analysis.

Statistical Analysis Plan: The primary outcome is the longitudinal response in MADRS from baseline to week 4. The primary estimand will be the response trajectory of the use of esketamine in conjunction with an anti-depressant on depression from baseline to week 4 post randomization, compared with placebo, among adults with TRD. Negative change in depression is measured by the change in MADRS score, classified into one of the four ordinal categories: deterioration, non-response, partial response, or response. Participants with observed outcome data will be included according to their assigned treatment, irrespective of treatment discontinuation, rescue medication use, or other post-randomization events. Esketamine was considered as a class effect across all doses, frequencies, and treatment durations used in the included trials. The individual MADRS scores will be visualized using spaghetti plots for each trial. The proportion of participant responses at each time point will be summarized by treatment groups.
We will use the 1-stage IPDMA approach with the mixed-effects ordinal logistic model with random intercepts on participants nested within studies. (Christensen 2018) To better model the time-varying treatment effect, we will add an interaction between treatment and time spline function in the model. Time will be modelled in natural cubic spline with 3 or 4 knots depending on the model fit and convergence. (Harrell 2001) Analyses will be adjusted for baseline MADRS scores and country/continent. Additionally, depending on data availability in each study, adjustments will be made for either the class of oral antidepressant or antidepressant monotherapy. For studies conducted in one country, the country will be entered based on trial protocol. The proportional odds assumption will be assessed graphically. When the proportional odds assumption is not met, we will use the mixed-effects multinomial logistic model. Prediction intervals will be calculated when more than 10 trials are included in the analysis. We will use the complete case analysis and report the percentage of missing data. The small study effect will be assessed using funnel plots when more than 10 trials are included.
When there are more than 5 trials eligible for inclusion, we would consider a sensitivity analysis using multistate model to compare the transition rates between each outcome categories during the intervention period between esketamine and placebo groups. In order to check whether enough transitions are observed in the data for a reliable model estimation, we will summarize the number of transitions between each outcome categories for the whole data. When the transitions between states are larger than 40 each, we will fit a continuous-time semi-Markov multistate model to investigate the transition rates between each outcome categories. (Meira-Machado et al., 2009) All possible transitions are allowed except for the direct transitions between response and deterioration. Since MADRS were measured only at scheduled visits, the exact transition times are unknown and will be assumed to occur between observation times. (Jackson 2011) Similar to the primary analysis, baseline MADRS scores, country/continent, the class of oral antidepressant/antidepressant monotherapy will be adjusted for in the model. Given the rapid reaction of esketamine, we expect a lower transition rate when participants stay in one category for a long time. Thus, duration in the state will be modelled as a fixed effect. Since the current package for interval-censored data doesn't not account for clustering within studies, study will be included as a fixed effect in the model. Treatment effects will be estimated separately for each transition and reported as transition-specific hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. All the available data will be used, and no imputation will be performed.

Narrative Summary: Major depression is a leading cause of disability worldwide. Many people do not respond to standard antidepressants, a condition known as treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Esketamine, a nasal spray recently approved for TRD, is still not fully understood in terms of patients' day-to-day response over time. In particular, studies rarely examine possible short-term worsening or other negative effects alongside benefits.

This study will combine raw data from multiple clinical trials to explore how response to esketamine evolves over time and to assess potential negative effects. By clarifying when the drug begins to work, how long effects last, and whether transient worsening occurs, clinicians may better tailor treatment, set realistic expectations, and improve care for people with severe depression.

Project Timeline: This project is part of SHARE-CTD Datathon 3, in which three independent teams have developed three distinct research questions. The present submission is made by the Principal Investigator on behalf of the datathon. Each team will conduct its analyses separately and in isolation, ensuring independence of research questions, analytical approaches, and interpretation of results across teams.

This project will be conducted during September 2026 as part of the SHARE-CTD Datathon 3. The main analyses will be carried out between Monday, 7 September 2026, and Friday, 11 September 2026, during the datathon. Additional analyses, quality checks, and finalisation of the statistical analyses may continue later in September, if required. Manuscript preparation is expected to take place between September and October 2026.

Dissemination Plan: Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed scientific publications, presentations at national and international conferences, and communication activities conducted as part of the SHARE-CTD project.

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Supplementary Material: Datathon3_Team3-Research-Proposal.pdf